By Wong Chen
The incoming Chinese New Year is the Year of the Snake. The snake is a creature that can evoke fear but in Chinese culture, the snake is also celebrated as a creature having positive traits such as flexibility and adaptability. These traits are rooted in pragmatism. In this age of grave uncertainties and global worry, we need more pragmatism than ever.
I am writing this article on the eve of the inauguration of Donald Trump. Like many, I am still uncertain if the Trump administration will be better in reducing geo-political tensions or worse in increasing such tensions.
In the last few years, under the Biden administration, the relationship between China and the West, has steadily declined. As a result of this, Malaysia has somewhat benefitted from the exit of sensitive US and Western tech companies from China and relocating to us. These FDIs landed strongly on our shores early last year. When these data centres and factories are fully operational, STEM jobs will be created including higher end research and development tasks in the field of AI and possibly Quantum Computers too.
Will these US and Western companies stay or move on back to the US under Trump? Will there be high-end chip access restrictions imposed on us? How will things play out for Malaysia and even the entire ASEAN region, in the next four years?
What we can do, is to ensure that our trade surpluses with the US becomes narrower in the next few years. We must avoid being in the economic crosshair of the Trump administration, which has signaled their intentions to impose tariffs on countries with large trade surplus.
I will recommend a curtailment and reassessment of our foreign policy position on BRICS, in particular with Russia. We should continue to work harder on Global South issues but in a more nuanced and clever approach, without attracting unnecessary ire or taking sides of any super powers. We must first and foremost fix ourselves in fighting corruption, improving governance and take control our fiscal position and national debt. When we are in a better financial state, say three years from now, we can then be more adventurous in our foreign policies.
Trump will be unpredictable. It is a characteristic of his being; there are no limits and behavioural norms do not apply. However, to counter that unpredictability is that his administration will, more likely than not, be transactional.
The question is whether there will be a willingness of the establishment to take actions (as they did in Trump’s first term) to prevent and manage these non-normal policy impulses? Many believe that such interventions will be much more limited this time, since the Republicans are in control of both houses and also the judiciary.
Moreover, his appointed unconventional cabinet members are very willing to dismantle traditional structures and pursue more unusual policies, bringing the fight to the establishment, keeping them busy in their own turfs. These are truly extraordinary times for democracy in America, where inevitable structural changes are going to occur with the help and financial power of a new group of fawning oligarchs.
These domestic matters are for the Americans themselves to decide. For the rest of the world, all we can do is to observe, comprehend and plan our responses.
Most recently, Trump working with Biden, managed to compel Israel to agree to a ceasefire in exchange of hostages on Palestine. On Ukraine, Trump has signaled his intention to seek a ceasefire with Putin. These are commendable actions; as peace is always preferred to war. However, many are confused and watchful of his intentions regarding his neighbours Canada and Mexico and more bizarrely, on Greenland.
If this unpredictability results in better US-China ties, a break from the current tensions, we could see global trade and most economies bouncing back. This is better than a divided world, as we all need to unite more than ever, to have a fighting chance to stop climate change and also to agree on protocols and rules to manage critical technologies such as AI and Quantum Computers.
A more unified world, willing to share some and compete in others, will be critical for humanity to find solutions to the climate change crisis. But on this hope for humanity, again we have more questions than answers on what will Trump do and possibly achieve.
Can a climate change denier really help to fight climate change? As for the question of AI and Quantum Computers, can a president surrounded by tech bros, pursue a policy to make these technologies benefit humanity? I am afraid, on both issues, Trump will likely make things worse, as such the next four years is going to be a roller-coaster ride.
Wishing all a Happy Chinese New Year, with prosperity and peace to you and your loved ones
